June 2026

Choosing in the Dark

What Working Adults Need to Make Better Postsecondary Choices

This research was funded by College Futures Foundation.

Adults are thoughtful decision-makers. The system they navigate is not built to reward that thoughtfulness.

Most working adults come to the postsecondary decision with striking clarity about what they want. The gap between that clarity and a well-matched choice isn't a motivation problem — it's a system that fails to provide support at three connected layers. Each is strengthened by the quality of what's inside it, and progress is possible on any or all at once.

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Layer 1 • At the core

Program-level data on cost, time to completion, and labor market outcomes that are specific and clear enough to act on.

Layer 2 • Surrounding the data

Presented so adults can actually compare options against their real constraints and see what each would mean for them specifically.

Layer 3 • Surrounding the system

Reaching adults through the right channel, from a source they trust, at the moment of decision, accounting for what they're actually up against.

Four Insights, One Story

Adults make intentional, clear-eyed decisions about their postsecondary pursuits — but constraints, missing information, and the workarounds they're forced into stand between that clarity and a well-matched choice. Select an insight to explore it.

Adults know what they value.

Across every segment, adult learners articulated what they wanted with real specificity: higher wages, recognized credentials, usable skills, compatible schedules, supportive instructors. Roughly nine in ten California adults without a degree say at least one credential is very or extremely valuable. The question isn't whether postsecondary education is worth it — it's which path will deliver it.

But what adults value isn't always what the labor market rewards — and value itself is multi-dimensional, spanning economic, professional, personal, familial, network, and civic dimensions that traditional ROI measures routinely leave out. The difficulty doesn't start in figuring out what they want.

The lesson to remember: Adults come with clear, well-articulated goals that shift sensibly with circumstance. The difficulty starts in finding a system that can help them get there.
"Definitely job availability and income at the end of it… The reason I chose Cybersecurity was because the salary outcome outweighed IT, so that's what made my final decision."— Prospective adult learner, associate's program
"Value is…can I build something from it? Can I get a job opportunity? Can I build something off the brand?"— Adult learner currently enrolled, associate's program

But constraints decide what's feasible before the value question can even be asked.

Work schedules, caregiving, transportation, and cost don't nudge preferences — they eliminate options outright. By the time an adult is "comparing programs," the realistic set may already be down to one or two. The operative question becomes Can I make this work now? rather than Will this pay off later?

Present bias i Present bias. When immediate needs are concrete and pressing, long-term goals may not even enter the decision frame. The adult isn't choosing speed over return — the long-term return was never a live option to begin with. Scarce bandwidth i Scarce bandwidth. Searching at the margins of full lives, the option requiring least effort wins — the nearest campus, the most familiar name — not because it's best, but because alternatives must actively earn scarce attention.
The lesson to remember: Real options are often far smaller than we assume, shaped by circumstance, and settled before value-based evaluation begins. The highest-impact moves expand the realistic set before it closes — or keep the value question alive when immediate pressures are loudest.
"Cal State LA is almost like a default no-brainer… it's the closest school, it's the easiest one to get to, but Cal State Northridge has some programs that are more interesting to me."— Prospective adult learner, bachelor's program
"I work full-time, I'm a full-time mom and wife… I don't have a lot of time. I decided to enroll in [an HR certification] because it's not a long program."— Adult learner currently enrolled, certificate program

And even when adults push past constraints, the information environment fails them.

The data adults need is fragmented, hard to interpret, and rarely connected to a decision. Comparable program-level data on cost, completion, and earnings — including for students who start but don't finish — doesn't exist at the scale decisions require. Four in ten adults who enrolled found it hard to locate career-outcome information.

Messenger effect i Messenger effect. We weigh information by who's delivering it. Adults extend trust to sources that feel official and accountable and discount those that feel promotional — a sensible heuristic, except the most trustworthy messengers (counselors, official data) are the hardest to reach. Ambiguity aversion i Ambiguity aversion. People prefer a known outcome to an uncertain one. When one program publishes placement rates and another publishes nothing, the unknown feels like an unacceptable gamble next to a known alternative. Missing data reads as a red flag.
The lesson to remember: Adults don't need more information — they need better information, in a form they can find, interpret, compare, and act on.
"There's especially not universal [data about outcomes]. If you know who to ask at the school, they may or may not have it… it's just very high-level percentages."— Recent graduate, online certificate program
"The info on [the school's] website about [my program] is 80% wrong… I wouldn't have chosen this program if I knew that before."— Recent graduate, online certificate program

So adults do the reasonable thing: they fall back on substitutes.

With no reliable signal at hand, they lean on informal advice, brand names, degree type, and marketing language — signals that aren't designed to predict fit and may not lead to the most aligned choice.

Availability heuristic i Availability heuristic. We judge how common or credible something is by how easily examples come to mind. A program that keeps surfacing — in ads, friends' stories, forum threads — starts to feel like the obvious choice simply because it's the one seen most. Attribute substitution i Attribute substitution. When "will this get me a job employers respect?" is hard, people swap it for "does this look legitimate?" A recognizable degree type or polished marketing becomes a stand-in for outcome data that isn't there — and because the swap is invisible, adults stop looking for what would actually help.
The lesson to remember: Adults make reasonable choices with the inputs realistically available. The fix isn't telling them to distrust their instincts — it's surfacing trustworthy, comparable signals at the decision moment, through channels they already use.
"The value of your education is built into the name…the reputation of the school. So if you got a good school with a good name, then that puts you in the game for opportunity."— Recent graduate, associate's; prospective bachelor's learner
"You go onto the website, of course it's going to be like, we offer [this and this]… but that's just fluff, right?"— Prospective adult learner, bachelor's program

Ten Strategies Across Three Layers

Solutions work best when they target the actual barriers people face, so each strategy connects directly to an insight. The ten strategies organize across the same three layers as the diagnosis. Select a layer to see its strategies.

The same research, focused on where you sit.

CBOs hold the trusted relationships. Institutions hold the data and the programs. Policymakers hold the system-level conditions. Funders hold the resources to build across them. No role can redesign the system alone — so select your role to see where you're best positioned to start.

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How to use this section. Start with the overview to see who is best positioned to lead and support each of the ten strategies, then select your role for three concrete, near-term places to start — each scaled to the levers you actually hold and ordered from lowest to highest investment.

Explore by…

Two Design Concepts

Any strategy can stand alone, but a comprehensive redesign applies several at once. These two concepts show what that looks like — each with two illustrative directions. Open a concept to explore the mockups; hover the numbered markers to see why each design choice is there and which barrier it addresses.

Now it's your turn!

The diagnosis points to a clear next move: start where you already meet adults, and bring structure to that moment. These interactive worksheets turn the strategies above into something you can use this week — customized for each stakeholder, for mapping where your work shows up across the decision journey, which barriers are most relevant to you, and your highest-leverage place to start.

We're eager to hear where you take this!

This guide is a starting point, not a finish line. The adults in this research were already doing the hard part — thinking clearly about what they want. The work ahead is building the navigation and human-support layer that lets them act on it. If you're picking up one strategy, piloting a concept, or rethinking a single touchpoint, we'd like to know.